Research focus of the Bavarian Foresight Institute

Technology Assessment is a central research focus of the Bavarian Foresight Institute and comprises the systematic evaluation and analysis of technological developments and their potential effects. The methods frequently used include scenario analyses, Delphi surveys, technology assessment (TA) and trend analyses.

Scenario analyses enable companies to design various future scenarios and evaluate their possible consequences. This helps to make strategic decisions and better assess risks. Delphi surveys, in which experts are asked about future developments, offer valuable insights and forecasts that contribute to decision-making. Technology assessment (TA) analyses the social, economic and environmental impact of new technologies and makes recommendations for their responsible use. Trend analyses identify and evaluate technological trends in order to recognise opportunities and risks at an early stage.

By using these methods, Technology Assessment helps companies to conduct foresight by providing well-founded information and analyses. This enables companies to better understand future developments, identify innovation potential and develop strategies that secure their long-term competitiveness. In addition, technology assessment helps to recognise possible negative effects of new technologies at an early stage and to take suitable measures to minimise risks. In this way, technology assessment makes a decisive contribution to enabling companies to react proactively to technological changes instead of merely reacting to them, thereby strengthening their position on the market and promoting sustainable growth.

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Business development is a key area of research and involves the systematic development of new business models and the promotion of innovative business ideas. Frequently used methods include market analyses, SWOT analyses, design thinking, lean startup and business model canvas.

Market analyses provide a detailed examination of the market environment, including customer needs, competitors and trends, enabling companies to make well-founded decisions on market development. SWOT analyses (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) help to identify internal and external factors that influence business strategy and enable targeted planning to maximise strengths and opportunities and minimise weaknesses and threats. Design thinking promotes creative problem solving and customer-centred thinking by using interdisciplinary teams to develop innovative products and services. Lean Startup emphasises the importance of fast, iterative product development and customer feedback in order to develop marketable solutions efficiently and cost-effectively. Business Model Canvas is a strategic management tool that helps companies to visualise and analyse their business models in order to develop and implement innovative business ideas in a structured way.

By using these methods, Business Development supports companies in conducting foresight by identifying new market opportunities, adapting business models and developing future-oriented strategies. This systematic approach enables companies to strengthen their competitiveness and achieve sustainable growth by reacting to changes in the market environment at an early stage and implementing innovative solutions. In this way, business development makes a decisive contribution to ensuring that companies not only react to current challenges, but also proactively make future-oriented decisions and position themselves for long-term success.

Technology innovation is an important area that focuses on the development and implementation of new technologies to provide innovative solutions to current and future challenges. The most commonly used methods include design thinking, rapid prototyping, technology roadmapping and open innovation.

Design thinking promotes creative idea generation and solution approaches through an iterative process that is focussed on the needs of users. This helps companies to develop new technologies that offer real added value and address market needs. Rapid prototyping enables companies to quickly create and test prototypes of their products or services in order to gather feedback and iterate at an early stage. This allows innovations to be brought to market faster and minimises risks.

Technology roadmapping is a strategic method for planning and managing the development and introduction of new technologies over a defined period of time. It helps companies to develop long-term innovation strategies and utilise resources effectively. Open innovation opens companies up to external ideas and partnerships by working with start-ups, research institutions or other organisations to develop new technologies and find innovative solutions.

By using these methods, Technology Innovation helps companies to conduct foresight by recognising, developing and implementing innovative technologies at an early stage. This strengthens companies' competitiveness, promotes continuous innovation and enables them to react proactively to changes in the market environment. Companies can thus strengthen their position in the market and achieve long-term success by establishing themselves as pioneers in technology development and utilising new growth opportunities.

Strategic foresight is a central research focus and involves systematically researching and analysing future trends and developments in order to develop long-term strategies. Frequently used methods include scenario analysis, Delphi surveys, environmental scanning, PESTEL analysis and roadmapping.

Scenario analysis enables companies to design different future scenarios and evaluate their possible consequences, which can optimise strategic decisions and risk management. Delphi surveys, in which experts are repeatedly asked about future developments, provide valuable insights and well-founded forecasts that support decision-making. Environmental scanning involves continuously monitoring and analysing external influences such as technological, economic, political and social trends in order to identify opportunities and risks at an early stage. PESTEL analysis examines the macro-environment of a company by analysing political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal factors that could influence its strategy. Roadmapping is a method of strategic planning in which companies visualise long-term goals and the steps and milestones required to achieve them.

By using these methods, Strategic Foresight helps companies to conduct foresight by gaining a deep understanding of future developments and proactively designing strategic measures. This enables companies to be prepared for changes in the market environment, promote innovation and secure their long-term competitiveness. Strategic foresight helps companies not only to react to current challenges, but also to anticipate future opportunities and develop appropriate strategies in order to achieve sustainable success and strengthen their position in the market.